hopium.

It's what usually happens to the winning candidate. Maybe in 2016 your candidate will get that same chance, or at least you can hope she does.

It's realism.

I'd almost guarantee that Clinton supporters are telling pollsters they'll vote for McCain, but Obama supporters are doing so in much smaller numbers. Ergo, Obama suffers a greater loss from Democrats defecting to McCain in these polls.

Let's check back a month after the convention and then we'll see where we really are. Given how people can readily use polls to vent their frustration with the race or game the results, I don't take polls too seriously right now.

not till the primary is over...

serious question. If you got a call by a pollster asking if you would support Obama in the General Election what would you answer?

As a Clinton supporter, I'd say McCain.

It's the same reason the amount of Clinton supporters who say the won't get behind Barack Obama is so high in the exit polls.

It helps Hillary in the polls and can be used as an electability argument (or work as a talking point, hence the diary.

They will after June 3rd when it's official. For now we still have to deal with hillarys shadow which is casting darkness on the democratic party.

It seems hillary is the weaker candidate if she couldn't even beat a black Jr. Senator with a funny Arab sounding name, who was polling at about 5 when the race started.

are a losing strategy for November. Hope that improves.

Please make sure the campaign talks and acts in the way you think. It's your campaign so YesYouCan make sure the campaign ditches Hillary.

Please join me in opposing John McCain once he is elected President (hopefully by then you will have learnt to pander).

I can say that honestly.  In pro-Obama polling diaries and pro-Clinton ones, I say the exact same thing.

Having learned that lesson the hard way too many times has done that to me.  I put exactly not one iota of faith in polling data, but even less (if possible) in polling data done several months in advance...

Can't really disagree, as long as it is clear that both of the Dems are within the margin of error of each other. What isn't good for one of them, isn't good for the other either.

This is the opposite of the truth.  McCain should be killing in the GE polls right now.  He has been getting a free ride for months.  He has also had free rein to raise money, unite the party, and define himself/his opponents.  

At the same time his opponent is still locked in intra-party conflict.  Nearly 20% of Obama supporters are saying right now they won't vote for Hillary, and 30%+ of Hillary supporters are saying they won't vote for Obama.

This is the type of situation McCain needs to seize, and he hasn't done that yet.  It speaks to the strength of the democratic party this election.

Um, as I have a B.A. in Political Science, I can tell you that I have paid attention to politics for decades.

The only thing polling data is good for is to indicate demographic breakdowns where the candidate needs to focus... that's pretty much it.  

A lot can change in 5 months, including the numbers... or, actually, ESPECIALLY the numbers...

No, he asked why Clinton does so badly with white people. It was snark. Both Clinton and Obama poll about the same among white people (well within the MOE of each other). You can't use Wright to explain why white people don't like Obama any more than they like Clinton or Kerry or Gore or Bill Clinton.

Actually, you can. I think it is called the Southern Strategy, but I hear we aren't allowed to talk about that.

mainly because Hillary and her droids tell them he does.

There is nothing in Obama's record or rhetoric that suggests that he shares Wright's views, nothing.

Yeah, I kind of agree with you.  It's not going to happen in the next two weeks.  It will happen once Obama is ordained as the nominee.  The Rethugs are holding off for now.

there are other reasons, and he's behind now, so it can get worse or better and one or the other is likely.  Yet another example of someone overrating Barack's charms and thinking the only way to beat him is to .... ?  Silly you, he's a Chicago pol, a lawyer, a big city slicker and McCain sucker punched him already.  Barack was very green to give John that opportunity.  You don't tell a war hero he doesn't understand the needs of our vets, even if it's true it's too stupid. McCain got to paraphrase Barack's only joke, and what will Barack say next, McCain doesn't have to show him respect, he's not in our party, he doesn't need to unify with us, matter of fact he needs not to.      

she's getting a trickle, a few every week. What's telling is that she's the presumptive loser but keeps getting them and the rest aren't falling in line behind Barack. That's the real question, her supporters want to see how she does in the next few weeks and how she polls, so it looks on the surface that mainly her supporters are left, the one's that want to win the GE and want to pick the one most likely to win it.  Right now it looks like her, but it's too soon, things can change.  

Sadly, yours already has.